Major Hurricane Threat Seen for Northeast U.S., Experts Warn

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

March 28, 2006

Forecasters for the private weather service AccuWeather say the
Northeast may be the next U.S. region to take a direct hit from a major
hurricane.

AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi said he sees a "cycle within a cycle" when he compares previous periods of intense hurricane activity with the current cycle of powerful storms that began a decade ago.

"When I study the tracks of past hurricanes and study what we're looking at now, one can only say that it's by the grace of God that the Northeast hasn't gotten slammed yet," Bastardi said.

Bastardi noted that during previous active hurricane periods, the Gulf Coast and Atlantic coast took direct hits from powerful storms, and then the Northeast took a direct hit.

"I'd be surprised if [the Northeast] doesn't have at least one and maybe two major hurricanes in the next ten years," he said.

"And I'm very concerned about a possible landfall this year."

Meteorologist Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said there's "a much more enhanced chance of experiencing a major hurricane in the Northeast. Whether it's this year or not, who knows?"

Where Do They Come From?

Landsea said hurricanes that make landfall in the Northeast usually begin as so-called Cape Verde hurricanes, which form near the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa (map).

They usually approach the Bahamas as powerful hurricanes that are then shoved northward by other weather systems over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada.

The storms also move very quickly, which allows them to retain their strength much farther north than slower moving hurricanes, he said.

"When storms get into cooler water, the slower moving ones will fall apart," Landsea said.

"If they're fast-moving, they don't have time to deteriorate as much. So they can retain quite a bit of their tropical strength as they reach the Northeast.

"The biggest impacts for the Northeast are the storms that are moving at 30 or 40 miles an hour [50 to 65 kilometers an hour] as they come out of the lower latitudes."

Hurricane Cycles

Meteorologists have noted that hurricane seasons run in alternating cycles of active and less active seasons. These cycles last from 25 to 40 years.

Active seasons are thought to be triggered by the concentration of salt in ocean water. When the salt content is higher, the water is warmer and more hurricanes form.

Meteorologists believe that a cycle of active seasons started in 1995 and could continue for another 15 to 30 years.

Hurricanes need warm water to produce and retain their immense power.

But the ocean waters north of North Carolina are much cooler during the summer than the water farther south off Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico. So it's rare when a hurricane ranking at Category Three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale makes landfall in New Jersey or northward.

The Saffir-Simpson scale ranks hurricanes from one to five according to wind speed and potential for causing destruction.

A Category Three hurricane packs winds from 111 miles an hour to 130 miles an hour (178 to 209 kilometers an hour), while a Category Four storm has winds from 131 miles an hour to 155 miles an hour (210 to 249 kilometers an hour).

A Category Five hurricane has winds exceeding 155 miles an hour (249 kilometers an hour).

Northeast's Stormy Past

Although powerful hurricanes are less common in the Northeast, they do occasionally cause havoc there.

In 1804 a hurricane toppled the steeple of Boston's Old North Church, where the signal warning that British troops were coming was flashed to Paul Revere in 1775.

Powerful hurricanes also pounded the Northeast in 1938, 1944, and 1954.

The 1938 hurricane, often referred to as the "Long Island Express," is the standard by which all Northeastern hurricanes are judged. It got its nickname because it raced up the East Coast at 50 miles an hour (80 kilometers an hour) or faster and slammed into Long Island, New York, on September 21, 1938.

The 1938 hurricane devastated cities from New Jersey northward. At least 680 people died in the storm, which also destroyed 26,000 automobiles and caused the Empire State Building in New York City to sway more than four inches (ten centimeters).

In 1944 a hurricane made landfall near the Connecticut-Rhode Island border on September 14. Between 300 and 400 people were killed.

And on August 31, 1954, Hurricane Carol plowed into New England, killing about 60 and toppling the Old North Church steeple that had been built to replace the one destroyed by the 1804 storm.

Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.

Free Email News Updates
Sign up for our Inside National Geographic newsletter. Every two weeks we'll send you our top stories and pictures (see sample).