The strongest El Niño on record formed in 1997, and it too suppressed hurricane activity. The Colorado State University team had expected a more active season until the weather phenomenon formed.
Gray said the El Niño that formed last August has faded and is being replaced by its cold-water cousin called La Niña, which is associated with active hurricane seasons.
As well, he noted, "the Atlantic Ocean is now very warm, and the arrangement of surface pressure patterns are such that we should be seeing more storms."
2007 Confidence
Despite the imprecise 2006 forecast, Gray is confident 2007 will be active.
He and his colleagues base their forecast on signals seen in 60 years of climate records for the months preceding the June 1 start of hurricane season.
"Given the historical evidence in the past and everything, given what we've seen, the conditions are set up such that this should be an active year," Gray said.
"The odds definitely favor it."
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