The situation is different in the Great Basin area, where the climate is drier than on the West coast. The vegetation will usually always be dry enough to burn, Westerling explained, so "it's just a matter of enough fuel becoming available to burn." In those drier Western states, therefore, the most important factor in predicting the severity of wildfires is the levels of moisture—or "fuel" production—in the winter and spring of the year preceding a fire season.
The scientists' comprehensive forecast for the 2001 fire season in the West, from the West Coast to the Rocky Mountains, indicates that fire severity has tapered off after two years of dry conditions. In other words, the fuel is dry, but there's less fuel to burn.
Tailored Applications
The wildfire forecasting research is sponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Energy. It's administered by a Scripps-based initiative called the California Applications Program, which works to increase local use of forecasting methods to improve the management of natural resources and planning for natural disasters.
Dan Cayan, the director of the applications program, said the next step in the project is to work more closely with California's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection to tailor the forecasting methodology to the agency's needs.
The still-experimental tool doesn't provide highly specific information such as how particular fires will behave and how much they will burn. But future versions will become more and more sophisticated.
Eventually, managers may be able to predict wildfires within shorter time frames, such as in early or late phases of a fire season, and with greater lead time. Incorporating more extensive data, especially detailed ecological and climate information, should also make it possible to better pinpoint fire-prone areas across the West so officials can act to prevent wildfires or minimize their damage.
The research was done by scientists from the Scripps Institution, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Desert Research Institute, which is based in Reno, Nevada.
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