Ernesto Threatens Florida, Carolinas With Heavy Rains

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

August 29, 2006

A weakened tropical storm Ernesto moved into the warm waters of the
Florida Straits today, regaining strength as it heads for landfall
tonight in the upper Florida Keys.

Forecasters say there's only a remote possibility that Ernesto will become a hurricane again before it reaches the Keys (map of Florida).

What's more likely, however, is that Ernesto will become a strong tropical storm, with winds occasionally gusting to hurricane force.

Ernesto became the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season as it crossed the Caribbean earlier this week.

A weather system is designated a tropical storm when its winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) an hour. It becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour.

But Cuba's mountains disrupted the storm as it crossed the island, says meteorologist Eric Christensen at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"It weakened significantly," Christensen said. "It became very disorganized as it emerged off the Cuban coast."

Reenergized

Ernesto got another jolt of energy, however, in the Florida Straits, which lie between Cuba's northern coast and the Florida Keys. Christensen said the storm started re-intensifying almost immediately when it reached the straits.

When its center hits the Keys around midnight ET, Ernesto could have sustained peak winds of about 63 miles (101 kilometers) an hour and even stronger gusts, Christensen says.

Forecasters expect Ernesto to move onto the lower Florida peninsula around Homestead after the storm crosses the Keys and then to move north on Wednesday.

"Homestead, Florida City, all through metro Miami-Dade [County] will see the impact," Christensen said. "Maybe slightly to the east of the center, there will be strong tropical storm-force winds with higher gusts. We're a little concerned about the rainfall potential for South Florida."

Ernesto is expected to bring at least 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain as it moves quickly through Florida. Isolated areas may receive as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters).

Rainfall over Florida's heavily populated southeastern coast—which includes Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach—is expected to be heavy.

And the state's Gulf Coast is expected to see downpours of 3 to 5 inches (8 to 13 centimeters).

Ernesto's eye is expected to pass near Lake Okeechobee, where engineers are concerned about the stability of a massive, 140-mile (225-kilometer) dike that protects the area from flooding. But the lake's water level is currently only about 12 feet (4 meters) above sea level, which is considered safe.

Ernesto's center is expected to head back into the Atlantic Ocean just north of Cape Canaveral late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Forecasters think it could make another landfall early Friday morning around Charleston, South Carolina.

"It's still looking like it's going to be a decent tropical storm at that point, and it will affect the Carolinas," Christensen said. "But it's not expected to be a hurricane."

Willie Drye is author of Storm of the Century: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.

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