The Next Pope: Who Will It Be?

Hillary Mayell
for National Geographic News

April 2, 2005

Pope John Paul II died today in Vatican City at the age of 84. Born
Karol Wojtyla in Poland, he served as pope for 27 years—the third
longest reign in Roman Catholic Church history.

(See exclusive video from inside the Vatican.)

He leaves the church at a time of historic transition, further complicating the question on everybody's lips: Who will be the next pope?

Baptized Catholics numbered 757 million in 1978, the year John Paul II took office. Today that number has grown to 1.1 billion, with nearly 65 percent living in the developing world.

"Catholicism has been moving south to Latin America, Africa, and Asia, where there's a lot of growth, whereas Catholicism in western Europe has been in decline," said Chester Gillis, chair of the Department of Theology at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

Given the 148 percent increase in the number of Catholics in Africa in the last 25 years, there has been some speculation that the choice of the next pontiff might reflect these changing demographics.

Break With Tradition?

Two hundred and seventeen popes have been Italian. By contrast, 17 have been French, 6 German, and 3 Spanish. England, Portugal, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Poland each yielded one pope. The African continent has produced three pontiffs. The last of them, Gelasius I, took office in 492.

Electing a non-Italian pope would break a long-held tradition of the church. John Paul II was the first non-Italian pontiff to be elected since 1523.

The church's voting blocs, however, don't necessarily divide along geographic lines. Cardinals of liberal and conservative persuasions can be found on all continents.

"There are several scenarios," Gillis said. "One is that, after having a Polish pope for 27 years, the cardinals want to return to one of their own and elect an Italian. Another would be that the pope would be a figure from the developing world. The other scenario is that they'll choose a European who can revive moribund Christianity in Europe—or try to, anyway."

"I think there's a good likelihood that the next pope will come from outside Italy," Gillis said.

Father Richard McBrien is a theologian at Indiana's University of Notre Dame. He thinks it is more likely—though not a sure thing—that the next pope will be an Italian.

"With so many cardinal-electors—119 at this point—and so many possible candidates, it's practically impossible to do more than guess," he said. "No one seriously predicted the election of Karol Wojtyla of Poland last time around. It could be anybody.

"Whomever they elect will have to show an awareness of, and concern for, the so-called world church—of Africa, Latin America, and Asia," McBrien said, adding that all of the serious candidates have this quality.

"An Election Is an Election"

The pope is essentially an elected monarch; there are no checks or balances on his power. The reigning pope holds office for life and has the last word in all executive, legislative, and judicial powers.

Pope John Paul II has appointed all but 3 of the 120 cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope, possibly stacking the odds that John Paul's teachings will remain in place.

"The bottom line is, it's an election, shrouded in mystery, and it has kind of an arcane feel to it," McBrien said. "Catholics believe the choice is guided by the Holy Spirit, but in the long run, it's an election. And when there's an election, people vote.

"The campaigning and the politicking might be much more subtle than in the American political arena, but in the end, there's a winner and loser."

American Pope?

Several names have surfaced as front-runners.

A conservative Nigerian cardinal, Francis Arinze, is rumored to rank high on the list of potential successors. Arinze is president of the Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialogue, an issue that likely will be a high priority for the next pope.

Latin American candidates include Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil, Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, and Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, a Jesuit from Argentina, according to McBrien.

Potential European candidates include Cardinal Godfried Danneels of Belgium and Cardinal Walter Kasper of Germany.

Gillis cautions that any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. "There's an old saying in Rome: 'He who goes into the conclave a pope comes out a cardinal,'" Gillis said.

The only virtually sure thing is that the chances of an American pope are next to zero.

The United States is home to 63 million Catholics, about a third of them Hispanic. At about 23 percent of the population, Catholics form the largest religious group in the country.

The U.S. is home to one of the wealthiest branches of the church. Annual income from the country's roughly 20,000 parishes is estimated at 7.5 billion dollars.

But electing an American "would be like appointing an American the head of the United Nations," Gillis said, adding that the U.S. is "just too powerful a nation, too dominant and imperialistic in some views."

"It's highly, highly unlikely for that reason. And secondly, the American cardinals, for the most part, are not that well connected in the Vatican."

Following in John Paul's Footsteps

Whatever the nationality of the next leader of the Vatican, John Paul II has changed the role of the pope and will leave some very big shoes to fill.

"He's been a globe-trotter and a very charismatic personality," Gillis said. "The next pope can't be someone who is not media savvy and doesn't have some charisma and public persona and the ability to exploit that for the church. So in a way John Paul has set a benchmark there and changed the papacy."

Many people assume that John Paul II will be succeeded by someone who holds similar beliefs. That's not necessarily so, according to McBrien, the Notre Dame theologian.

"The next pope will be different from John Paul II in personality, style, and perhaps even policies," McBrien said. "Popes are almost never succeeded by photocopies of themselves, even if, like John Paul II, they have created almost all of the cardinal-electors. History shows that it doesn't work out that way."

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