Dead Spy Satellite Could Crash Into U.S.

Lolita C. Baldor in Washington, D.C.
Associated Press

January 30, 2008

A large spy satellite expected to fall to Earth in late February or early March could hit North America, an official said Tuesday.

The U.S. military is developing contingency plans to deal with that possibility, Air Force Gen. Victor "Gene" Renuart, Jr., who heads U.S. Northern Command, told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

The size of the satellite suggests that some number of pieces will not burn up as the orbiting vehicle re-enters the Earth's atmosphere—and will hit the ground.

"We're aware that this satellite is out there," Renuart said.

"We're aware it is a fairly substantial size. And we know there is at least some percentage [of it] that it could land on ground as opposed to in the water."

North American Re-Entry

"It looks like it might re-enter into North America," Renuart added.

In that scenario the U.S. military, along with the Homeland Security Department and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, will either have to deal with the impact or assist Canadian or Mexican authorities.

Military agencies are doing an analysis to determine which pieces most likely would survive re-entry, he said.

But he cautioned that officials won't have much detail on where or when the object will crash until it begins to move through the atmosphere and break up.

Renuart added that there does not as yet appear to be much concern about sensitive technologies on the satellite falling into enemy hands.

"I'm not aware that we have a security issue," he said. "It's really just a big thing falling on the ground that we want to make sure we're prepared for."

(Related news: "Terrorist Use of Google Earth Raises Security Fears" [March 12, 2007].)

A U.S. official confirmed that the spy satellite is designated by the military as US 193.

The satellite, launched in December 2006, carried a sophisticated and secret imaging sensor, but its central computer failed shortly after launch.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the information is classified as secret.

Sky Show

The satellite includes some small engines that contain a toxic chemical called hydrazine—rocket fuel. But Renuart said they are not large booster engines with substantial amounts of fuel.

Video images of the satellite captured by John Locker, a British amateur satellite watcher, show it to be about 13 feet to 16.5 feet across (4 meters to 5 meters across).

He believes it weighs a maximum of 10,000 pounds (4,536 kilograms). Locker calculated its size with data on its altitude and location provided by other amateur satellite watchers, using the International Space Station as a yardstick.

Satellite watchers have been plotting the satellite's degradation for a year. They estimate it is now at an altitude of about 173 miles (278 kilometers), and Locker believes it is dropping about 1,640 feet (500 meters) a day.

When the satellite burns up, flares will be visible from the ground, said Ted Molczan, a Canadian satellite tracker. From that point on, he said, it will take about 30 minutes to fall.

In the past 50 years of monitoring space, 17,000 human-made objects have re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.

Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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