Hurricane John Unlikely to Make Landfall, Forecasters Say

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

August 31, 2006

Powerful Hurricane John weakened this morning as it moved northwest in
the Pacific Ocean just off the west coast of Mexico.

Forecasters think the storm will regain strength later today. But John's center is expected to remain offshore until the hurricane turns westward into open waters.

The storm could still rake Mexico's west coast with hurricane-force winds exceeding 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour.

Hurricane-strength winds could extend as far as 45 miles (72 kilometers) from the storm's center, says Todd Kimberlain, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

The winds and rain are threatening resort towns such as Cabo San Lucas and Puerto Vallarta (map of Mexico).

Mexican officials have issued warnings for about 250 miles (402 kilometers) of the mainland's coastline, as well as southern areas of the Baja California Peninsula.

Forecasters are also concerned that John's track might make a slight shift to the east.

Even a small deviation would send the storm into the Gulf of California and eventual landfall on either Baja California Sur or southwest Mexico.

The storm is not expected to affect the U.S. (Related: "Ernesto Weakens Over Florida" [August 2006].)

Cooling Off?

As of 8 a.m. ET today, Hurricane John's maximum winds diminished to about 125 miles (201 kilometers) an hour.

This reduced it to Category Three storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranks hurricanes from one to five on the basis of wind speeds and destructive potential.

A Category Three storm has winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) an hour to 130 miles (193 kilometers) an hour and is considered a major hurricane.

The storm had reached Category Four status yesterday, meaning that its strongest winds exceeded 130 miles (209 kilometers) an hour.

John is still moving over warm water and probably will regain Category Four status, Kimberlain says.

The storm's track will be determined by a high-pressure system to the north, he says.

According to predictions, John's center—and its strongest winds—will most likely stay offshore until the hurricane turns away from land.

The hurricane is expected to make a sharp turn west late Saturday or early Sunday and rapidly lose strength.

"In about 36 hours, as the center slips past the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, it gets into really cold water," Kimberlain said. "The water temperature goes from being at a level that can support a hurricane to very cold. It will begin a steady weakening."

After it makes its turn, John will head into the open waters of the Pacific Ocean and "meet its demise," Kimberlain said.

But a small eastward shift in the hurricane's course could send the storm slamming into Mexico and cause severe damage, officials warn.

John began last week as a tropical depression in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The system crossed Central America into the Pacific and quickly developed into a powerful hurricane.

Meanwhile, another hurricane—Kristy—has formed in the Pacific. The storm, currently packing winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) an hour, is expected to remain at sea.

Willie Drye is author of Storm of the Century: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.

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