Hurricane Alert Issued for Season's First Named Storm

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

June 12, 2006

Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm of the 2006 Atlantic
hurricane season, could strike Florida late Tuesday or early
Wednesday as a minimal hurricane with winds of at least 74 miles (80
kilometers) an hour.

As of 10 a.m. eastern time today the storm's center was in the Gulf of Mexico, about 190 miles (300 kilometers) south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida (see a map of Florida).

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami have issued hurricane warnings for Florida's Big Bend area—the northern portion of the west coast as it curves from the peninsula to the Florida Panhandle.

The storm had encountered high-level winds, known as shear, that had impeded its development and scattered its winds.

But NHC forecaster Michael Brennan said that a U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight into the storm this morning discovered that Alberto had strengthened and now had peak sustained winds of 70 miles (113 kilomters) an hour.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour. Alberto could reach that point within 24 hours, forecasters say.

Brennan said the unexpected strengthening probably took place when Alberto moved over the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current, which contains deeper, warmer water. Tropical storms draw their strength from seawater that has been warmed to at least 80º Fahrenheit (27º Celsius).

Brennan cautioned that Florida residents shouldn't become too focused on Alberto's center.

"For this storm more than most, the exact track of the center is not as important as it is with most storms," Brennan said.

"The effects will be widespread, with tropical storm-force winds extending 230 miles [370 kilometers] from the northeast and southeast. Large areas away from the center will experience tropical storm conditions."

Tropical storm conditions exist when winds of at least 39 miles (63 kilometers) an hour are present.

The storm has already dumped nearly 2 feet (61 centimeters) of rain on Cuba.

Alberto is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters) of rain to Florida, and some parts of the state could get as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters).

The rainfall could help ease drought conditions and reduce the chance of forest fires in Florida. But the deluge might cause flash flooding in some places along its path, Brennan said.

Start of an Active Season?

Alberto began Saturday as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea and was upgraded to a tropical storm the following day.

Alberto is typical of early-season tropical storms, Brennan says, which often form in the Caribbean, pass through the Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, and then curve toward the Florida peninsula.

Alberto's formation has reminded jittery coastal residents of last year's unprecedented hurricane season, when a record 28 named storms formed.

But Brennan says it's too early in the 2006 season to make any predictions based on Alberto.

"You can't really say much about the way the season is going to go based on any one storm," he said. "The biggest thing is that people need to be prepared anywhere along the coast."

Long-range hurricane forecasters have predicted that 2006 will be another in a series of above-average hurricane seasons (read "Hurricane Forecast: "Very Active" Season, Five Major Storms Expected").

As many as 16 named storms could produce 6 major hurricanes, scientists say. An average hurricane season has about ten tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

If the prediction for an above-average season is accurate, it would continue a trend that started in 1995. Meteorologists think hurricane seasons have alternating cycles of active and less-active periods.

The active cycles can last 20 to 40 years and are thought to be triggered by warmer sea surface temperatures, caused by fluctuations in the salt content of the water.

When salt content is higher—as it is now in the Atlantic—the water is warmer and more hurricanes form.

Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.

Free Email News Updates
Sign up for our Inside National Geographic newsletter. Every two weeks we'll send you our top stories and pictures (see sample).