Regaining Fury, Hurricane Ivan Churns Toward Cuba

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

September 13, 2004

Powerful Hurricane Ivan, which has already killed 65 and inflicted
catastrophic damage across the Caribbean, will pass near or over the
western tip of Cuba today with devastating winds and a storm surge that
could be 20 feet (6 meters) or more.

As of 5 a.m. today, the hurricane had sustained winds around its eye of 160 miles an hour (257 kilometers an hour). That makes Ivan a Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes from One to Five according to wind speeds and destructive potential.

The Category Five designation is reserved for the most powerful storms with sustained winds—that is, winds that blow continuously for at least one minute—exceeding 155 miles an hour (249 kilometers an hour).

Hurricane Ivan's gusts are thought to be at least 200 miles an hour (320 kilometers). The storm's barometric pressure Saturday night dropped to 26.86 inches (68.22 centimeters), making it the sixth most powerful hurricane on record for the Atlantic Basin. Since then, Ivan's intensity has decreased some, but the barometric pressure still has hovered around 27 inches (68.58 centimeters).

The storm has been thrashing its way across the Caribbean since last week, inflicting massive damage in Grenada, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Forecasters expect the hurricane to pass into the Gulf of Mexico late today or early Tuesday. It will then head for a landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast, probably on Thursday.

Forecasters have not issued an official prediction for the hurricane's landfall. But on Monday morning, Ivan's most likely target appeared to be the coastline between Mobile, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida. But a long stretch of the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida's eastern panhandle, could take the brunt of Ivan's next landfall.

Hurricane Ivan has had ideal conditions for strengthening as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. But forecasters think it will lose some of its power as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico.

Still, the storm is expected to make landfall as a Category Three hurricane, with winds of 111 to 130 miles an hour (179 to 209 kilometers an hour).

Getting an accurate fix on Ivan's path is difficult, however, because a hurricane as strong as this one isn't always subject to the same meteorological influences as less powerful storms.

"When hurricanes get this strong, they can literally rearrange the atmosphere around them," said Stu Ostro, a meteorologist with Weather Channel. "The question is when, where, or if Ivan will begin a gradual northward turn. There will be significant uncertainty in the future track until that happens."

Ostro noted that Ivan is following a pattern similar to other extremely intense hurricanes that struck the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—it has continued on a westward track longer than usual before making the northward turn that hurricanes inevitably make.

Ivan's Origins

Ivan seemed destined for infamy almost from the moment it formed. On September 5, as it moved westward just off the coast of Venezuela, the hurricane already was rated a Category Four. Forecasters were surprised that a hurricane had achieved that intensity so far south, well away from the area of the Atlantic Ocean that usually spawns hurricanes this time of year.

If Ivan does come ashore in Florida, it would be the third hurricane to strike the state in only 34 days. Hurricane Charley, a Category Four storm, slammed into Punta Gorda, about 70 miles (110 kilometers) south of Tampa, on August 13 and then cut a path of devastation across the peninsula.

Hurricane Frances then came ashore at Sewall's Point, about 35 miles (55 kilometers) north of West Palm Beach, on September 4. Frances was not as powerful as Charley but still caused millions of dollars worth of damage.

Late last week forecasters thought Hurricane Ivan probably was going to make landfall today on the low-lying Florida Keys, a 150-mile (240-kilometer) chain of coral islands off the southern tip of the peninsula. Tourists were ordered to leave the Keys on September 8. The next day that order was followed by another to the islands' 80,000 residents to get out of harm's way.

But on Saturday Hurricane Ivan made an unexpected jog to the west. The storm's eye stayed offshore as it slid past Jamaica. That slight deviation spared Jamaica from Ivan's worst winds and also put Ivan on a track taking it well west of the Keys.

Officials in Monroe County, Florida, which includes the Keys, had been prepared for the worst. Jeffrey Pinkus, mayor of Marathon, Florida, said that members of the workforce who would be essential to the city's recovery effort after the storm had been moved to a shelter near Miami, and arrangements had been made to airlift them back to Marathon after the hurricane passed. More than two dozen police cars were moved into a stormproof building owned by a large building-supply store in Marathon, he said.

Police in Marathon—about 100 miles (160 kilometers) south of Miami—and elsewhere in the Keys went through mobile home parks urging residents to evacuate.

"We always have obstinate people who don't want to leave the mobile home parks," Pinkus said. "When people say they're not going to leave, the police get their name and the name of their next of kin and tell them where the body bags are kept."

Irene Toner, Monroe County's emergency management director, said the evacuation of the Keys "really went well."

"The word was out there that this might be a Category Four," Toner said. "A lot of people followed what Charley did to the west coast and what Frances did to the east coast. People took it very seriously."

Still, Keys residents have a well-established reputation for individualism, and Toner said this trait was evident during the evacuation order when some refused to budge. "It wouldn't be the Keys if we didn't have that," she said.

The evacuation order for the Keys was lifted today. But for the next three days, emergency-management officials from Florida to Louisiana will be facing the same difficult decisions as officials in the Keys made late last week.

Breaking Records

Forecasters had predicted that the 2004 hurricane season would be an active one. Meteorologist William Gray of Colorado State University had predicted eight hurricanes would form between June 1 and November 30. An average season produces five or six hurricanes.

August was a record-breaking month for hurricanes, according to Ostro, the Weather Channel meteorologist.

"We're just a couple of days past the average peak of the season, and there have already been nine named storms," he said. "The average for a whole season is ten. The eight storms that were named last month set a record for August. "What we don't know is how many more will form—or hit the U.S.—between now and the end of the season."

Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic Books.

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