Hurricane Wilma Approaches Landfall in Mexico

Willie Drye
for National Geographic News

October 21, 2005

A slow-moving and unpredictable Hurricane Wilma began pounding Mexico
this morning with winds of 145 miles an hour (233 kilometers an hour).

"As it stands now, there will be a significant impact from this system over the northeastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula," said Dave Roberts, a U.S. Navy forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Keith Blackwell, hurricane researcher at the University of South Alabama's Coastal Weather Research Center, said the storm will stall over the peninsula for a day or more.

That stalling will cause massive damage and allow the storm to dump as much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain on the peninsula, he said.

The resort cities of Cozumel and Cancun will be "pounded" by the lingering hurricane, Blackwell said.

Inconsistent Storm

A few days ago, Hurricane Wilma was expected to strike Florida sometime this weekend, but the storm's movement slowed dramatically as it churned through the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters now think the hurricane may reach Florida sometime late next Monday or early Tuesday.

Roberts said forecasters are uncertain about how Hurricane Wilma will be affected by weather fronts moving over North America. These systems could slow the hurricane's movement or speed it up.

"[The hurricane has] been very inconsistent," he said.

On Wednesday, Hurricane Wilma became the most powerful hurricane ever to form in the Atlantic Ocean when its strongest winds reached 175 miles an hour (282 kilometers an hour) and its barometric pressure fell to 26.09 inches, or 882 millibars.

Extremely powerful hurricanes, such as Wilma, can rearrange the atmosphere around them and alter "steering" wind currents that might have affected a weaker storm, Blackwell said.

"This has allowed the storm to move farther west and to Yucatán instead of directly into the Gulf of Mexico," Blackwell said. "That's having huge implications on the ultimate landfall in Florida because in all likelihood it'll be a much weaker storm."

Blackwell said the storm would lose much of its intensity over Mexico and would probably not be able to re-strengthen very much when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Had the storm avoided the peninsula and passed through the Yucatán Channel into the Gulf, it would have retained more of its strength as it turned toward Florida, he said.

Wilma will encounter less favorable conditions when it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. Roberts, the National Hurricane Center forecaster, said upper level winds, known as windshear, will diminish the hurricane's strength even more.

National Weather Center forecasts predict Hurricane Wilma could have winds of about 110 miles an hour (177 kilometers an hour) by the time it reaches Florida.

Blackwell said the storm probably would move very quickly across Florida, and that rapid movement will reduce the amount of damage and rainfall it inflicts.

The hurricane could make landfall anywhere from Florida's southwest coast to the Florida Keys. Officials in Monroe County, which includes the Keys, have ordered all tourists off the islands and have closed all state parks. But a mandatory evacuation of residents has been postponed.

Lost Business

Jeffrey Pinckus, mayor of the Keys city of Marathon, said the storm has inflicted a serious blow to the islands' tourism-driven economy.

"I don't see a lot of tourists on the street any more," Pinckus said this morning. "Every hotel in Marathon is vacant. At the earliest, they won't be back open until late Monday or early Tuesday. That puts a crimp in our business."

Pinckus said that on a normal day during tourist season, visitors spend about $380,000 (U.S.) in Key West, the islands' largest city.

Key West's annual Fantasy Fest—which Pinckus described as "our version of Mardi Gras"—was scheduled for this weekend.

The event would have drawn tens of thousands of visitors and poured millions of dollars into the islands' cash registers. But Hurricane Wilma has forced a postponement.

Hurricane Wilma is the 21st storm of the 2005 hurricane season, tying the previous 1933 record for number of storms in a single season. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30.

Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.

Free E-Mail News Updates
Sign up for our Inside National Geographic newsletter. Every two weeks we'll send you our top stories and pictures (see sample).