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Mud-Engulfed Village
Photograph by John Stanmeyer, National Geographic
Mud from Indonesia's Lusi volcano engulfs the village of Sidoarjo, East Java (see map), in 2008.
The world's biggest and fastest growing mud volcano, Lusi sprang to life in May 2006, and it and may continue to spew hot mud for another 26 years, according to a new study. Lusi could expel the equivalent of 56,000 Olympic-size swimming pools of mud before it finally simmers down, say scientists from the U.K.'s Durham University.
(Related pictures: "Indonesia's Mount Merapi Volcano Erupts.")
Mud volcanoes, which can appear on land or underwater, form when underground layers of silt or clay become pressurized either by tectonic activity or by a buildup of hydrocarbon gases.
To calculate Lusi's future mud flow, the team observed water pressure in a borehole near the volcano and combined that data with knowledge of the rocks' properties and mudflow volumes since 2006. (See pictures of Indonesia's mud volcanoes.)
"The calculation should enable a better assessment of the final impact of the disaster and gives the inhabitants of [East Java] an indication of how long they can expect to be affected by mud from the volcano," study leader Richard Davies said in a statement.
In the nearly five years since Lusi reawakened, villages have disappeared under the mud, which is 60 feet (18 meters) deep in places, according to a 2008 article in National Geographic magazine. Thirteen people have died and at least 10,000 families have been forced from their homes, according to the Durham University scientists.
The mud volcano study appeared in March in theJournal of the Geological Society.
Published March 4, 2011
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Flooded Houses
Photograph by Sigit Pamungkas, Reuters
Villagers in Jatirejo, East Java, stand by their mud-flooded houses after celebrating the end of Ramadan in October 2006.
The cause of Lusi's 2006 eruption is still disputed: Many blame a company drilling for gas, while others claim an earthquake was the trigger, according to National Geographic magazine.
The same Durham University team released a report in 2007 that said the upwelling began when an exploratory gas well punched through a layer of rock 9,300 feet (2,800 meters) below the surface, allowing hot, high-pressure water to escape.
(See more volcano pictures.)
Published March 4, 2011
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Up to His Ears
Photograph by Sigit Pamungkas, Reuters
A resident of Porong, East Java, retrieves valuables at a house flooded by mudflows in May 2009.
As Lusi's mud continues to spew, the area around the volcano has been subsiding—or lowering into Earth's crust, Durham University's Davies said.
A buildup of pressure due to subsidence may cause up to 166 new vents to form in the volcano, which could further damage homes, roads, and railway infrastructure, he said.
(See "'Gooey' New Mud Volcano Erupts From Arabian Sea.")
Published March 4, 2011
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Unstoppable?
Photograph by Adek Berry, AFP/Getty Images
Efforts to stop the Lusi mud volcano, pictured in May 2010—including plugging its crater with concrete balls—have so far failed.
Meanwhile, trucks and backhoes work relentlessly to contain the damage, fortifying dikes against the 600,000 barrels of mud that continue to surge out each day, National Geographic magazine reported in 2008.
"Nothing can stop it," Sumitro, a store-owner in Porong District, told the magazine. "Not technology, not the supernatural."
(Explore an interactive of the world's most dangerous volcanoes.)
Published March 4, 2011
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Displaced Family
Photograph by John Stanmeyer, National Geographic
A family displaced by the mudflows was forced to move into a market in Sidoarjo, East Java, as seen in 2008.
Since 2006 the volcano has released millions of barrels of heated sludge, blanketing an area twice the size of New York City's Central Park, according to a 2008 article in National Geographic magazine.
(See related pictures: "Merapi Volcano Ash Smothers Indonesian Villages.")
Published March 4, 2011
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Mud Volcano Cross-Section
Art by Don Foley, National Geographic
A National Geographic magazine cross-section of the Lusi mud volcano gives an idea of how drilling may have set off the eruption.
For a full time line of what possibly happened, explore the magazine's mud-volcano online interactive.
Published March 4, 2011
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Centuries-Long Eruption?
Photograph from AFP/Getty Images
A dyke at the edge of the Lusi mud volcano is seen from the air in May 2008.
Though the worst of the mud eruptions may be over in 26 years, the volcano's mud will likely flow at lower rates for thousands of years, according to the new study.
(See "Volcano Spews Lava, Gas in Indonesia; 11,000 Evacuated.")
Published March 4, 2011
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Failed Solution
Photograph by Dimas Ardian, Getty Images
Indonesian workers drop chained concrete balls to help stem Lusi's mudflow—ultimately to no avail—in March 2007.
As of 2008 the catastrophe had cost Indonesia $3.7 billion dollars—nearly one percent of its GDP—according to an International Monetary Fund estimate.
(See pictures: "America's Ten Most Dangerous Volcanoes.")
Published March 4, 2011
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Huge Burst
Photograph from Reuters
An engineer examines water shooting out of the ground in a house in Sidoarjo, East Java, in June 2007.
Experts say such bursts—widespread in the region—are caused by underground pressure linked to mud gushing out of a drill site near the Lusi volcano, according to Reuters.
(See pictures: "Volcano's Biggest Blast Yet Scorches Villages.")
Published March 4, 2011
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Fleeing the Mud
Photograph by Trisnadi, AP
Residents evacuate their houses after a dam meant to hold back mud breached in Porong, East Java, in February 2008.
Though dams have contained much of Lusi's mudflow, they're not foolproof. In addition to breaches, torrential rains could erode dikes, releasing more mud and displacing more people, according to National Geographic magazine.
(See "Dams Trigger Stronger Storms, Study Suggests.")
Published March 4, 2011
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"Only Memories"
Photograph by John Stanmeyer, National Geographic
Mud inundates Sidoarjo, East Java, in 2007.
Many neighborhoods near the volcano lie abandoned, including parts of the Porong District, which store-owner Sumitro once called home.
According to a 2008 National Geographic article, footprints of fleeing residents are baked into the mud of Porong's empty streets. Scavengers have stripped homes of roof tiles and wiring. The stink of sulfur hangs in the air.
"Nothing left now," Sumitro told the magazine. "Only memories."
Published March 4, 2011
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