11 Thomas Edison Predictions That Came True—Or Didn't

Machines, Not Menial Labor

Photograph by Bruce Dale, National Geographic

In 1911 Thomas Edison told Cosmopolitan he had no doubt that machinery (pictured, robotic car welders) "will make the parts of things and put them together, instead of merely making the parts of things for human hands to put together.

"The day of the seamstress, wearily running her seam, is almost ended," he predicted.

Machines taking over menial labor was a common and progressive notion at the time, Israel noted, and eventually became "the world we live in today," Israel said.

"Now, of course, we're in a situation where we're concerned about the ability of the economy to fully employ people, [as there's been] so much displacement by automated machinery."

(From our Great Energy Challenge news series: "Tough Road to Getting LED Lights on the Streets.")

Published February 11, 2011

Phones to Get Smarter

Photograph by Lynn Johnson, National Geographic

Thomas Edison foresaw that the day will come when telephones will "shout out proper names, or whisper the quotations from the drug market," according to the 1911 Cosmopolitan article.

"With some of these smartphones, that's completely conceivable—someone could come up with an app," Israel said.

Many advances in telephone technology have grown out of Edison's invention of the phonograph, he added.

(Related: "Inventor Turned Up Energy Savings by Dimming the Lights.")

Published February 11, 2011

Reinforced Concrete for All

Photograph by Fritz Hoffmann, National Geographic

These concrete houses in Dalian, China, are in some part thanks to Thomas Edison, who revolutionized the cement industry with his creation of the long kiln, Israel said.

In 1911 the inventor claimed that "men are lunatics" to keep building with bricks and steel, rather than concrete laced with steel reinforcing bars, or rebars.

"A reenforced concrete building will stand practically forever," he said. He also predicted that by 1941, "all construction will be of reenforced concrete, from the finest mansions to the tallest skyscrapers."

In the 1920s skyscrapers were largely steel-reinforced concrete, Israel noted.

But since the end of WWII, more architects have built tall buildings with steel frames with glass rather than steel-reinforced concrete, Israel noted.

(Related: Find out how Thomas Edison's signal invention has dulled our night skies.)

Published February 11, 2011

Wood Furniture Will Disappear

Photograph by Paul Massey, Red Cover/Photolibrary

Thomas Edison told Cosmopolitan that steel furniture (pictured, stools in a modern kitchen) would completely replace wooden furniture.

"The babies of the next generation will sit in steel high-chairs and eat from steel tables," Edison said. "They will not know what wooden furniture is."

That's because the alloy is lighter and cheaper than wood, and could even be "stained in perfect imitation" of mahogany and other woods, Edison said.

In the 1920s and 1930s, manufacturers began experimenting with steel office furniture in a big way, though wood remains a key ingredient of even the most modern home.

Published February 11, 2011

Electricity to Blow Away Steam Trains

Photograph by Sam Yeh, AFP/Getty Images

The demise of the steam engine and the rise of the electro-hydraulic train (pictured, a bullet train in Taiwan in 2006) is another century-old Edison prophecy.

Edison told Cosmopolitan that waterwheels would make electricity to run railroads that traverse water-abundant states, particularly in New England.

"The steam locomotive is blowing its last blasts for millions of people," the 1911 article said.

And in highly populated urban areas, that's been partly true, Israel said.

"He had talked about [the train grid] being water powered. It isn't, but nonetheless, the Northeast corridor, between Washington and Boston, is electrified."

(Behind Tuesday's Google Doodle: "Eight Jules Verne Inventions That Came True.")

Published February 11, 2011

Alchemy to Be Perfected

Photograph by Eliot J. Schechter, Bloomberg/Getty Images

Alchemists stretching back to at least the Renaissance have dreamed of artificial gold (pictured, bars issued by a gold ATM in 2010)—and Edison was no exception, according to Israel.

In 1911 the light bulb inventor predicted that it was only a question of time before the U.S. manufactured gold. Because of the resulting glut, gold would "not much longer lure" as a commodity.

He was partly right—in modern times, scientists have manipulated atoms to create synthetic gold in the lab, and it's an ongoing project at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.

Overall, the idea of artificial gold doesn't seem that surprising now, when "we're creating all sorts of insane materials," Israel said.

"This notion that one can create artificial gold is sort of mundane compared to what we're creating in the present day."

Published February 11, 2011

Poverty to Be Trumped by Tech

Photograph by Paul Wilson, My Shot

A beggar in Rome disproves one of Thomas Edison's 1911 predictions: that "there will be no poverty in the world a hundred years from now."

"Poverty was for a world that used only its hands," Edison told Cosmopolitan. "Now that men have begun to use their brains, poverty is decreasing."

Such a technocentric sentiment was not unusual at the time among "typical business progressives" like Edison, Israel noted.

"There was a lot of belief ... that technological progress would create such an abundance of wealth and good that it would do away with poverty," Israel said.

"That clearly has not happened."

Published February 11, 2011

Big Science to Beget Big Farming

Photograph by Amy Toensing, National Geographic

"The coming farmer will be a man on a seat beside a push-button and some levers," Thomas Edison told Cosmopolitan.

Tractors and battery-driven plows that would "mellow the earth more rapidly than ever horses could" were part of "great improvements" impending in farm machinery, Edison said.

He also predicted, correctly, that farms would experience a "great shake-up" driven by scientific knowledge and the introduction of big business.

For example, Edison said that farmers were "shy of brains," and that "in place of the present farmer will come a shrewd businessman who will be at once a soil-chemist, a botanist, and an economist."

Israel said, "That's what happened to farms—small farmers have largely been displaced by modern farm businesses."

Published February 11, 2011

Universal Peace

Photograph by Patti McConville, Getty Images

In the 1911 article—just three years before World War I—Thomas Edison said the "piling up of armaments" would "bring universal revolution or universal peace before there can be more than one great war."

As Israel points out, this, "of course, did not happen."

Even so, the atomic bomb created a stalemate between the U.S. and Soviet Union "because of a threat of mutual destruction" (pictured: a 1960 bomb shelter).

"In that sense there's some truth to [Edison's] idea."

Published February 11, 2011

Fast Airplanes to Take Off

Photograph by Mike Theiss, National Geographic

Thomas Edison's understanding of artificial flight (pictured, a jet plane over Bermuda in 2010) was limited, but he informed himself by observing nature—in particular, the agility of the bumblebee.

"Suppose you had four million trained bumblebees attached to wire wickerwork on which was seated a man," Edison said in the 1911 article—eight years after the Wright brothers' triumph. "Can't you understand that if the bumblebees were signaled to fly, they would lift the man?

"I believe mechanical bumblebees could be so attached to a flying machine that they would lift it straight up."

Robotic bumblebees aside, Edison foresaw flying machines that would carry passengers at more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) an hour, Israel said.

Israel also offered his own prediction of what Edison would think of life in 2011.

He "would be as much of an enthusiast of modern technology," Israel said, "as he was about technology of his period."

Published February 11, 2011