Even when extremely high levels of hydrogen sulfide were added to the two-dimensional models, hydroxyl radicals mopped them up and prevented ozone collapse.
The study appears in the latest issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.
Not So Disastrous
Lee Kump, a geochemist from Pennsylvania State University in University Park, was involved in earlier studies that predicted catastrophically high hydrogen sulfide levels at the end of the Permian.
The conditions created by earlier models "should have wiped out all life on Earth and not allowed anything to survive," Kump said. "It would have been impossible to hide from."
Kump said he welcomes the new study since it mitigates the dire consequences of anoxic oceans and helps to explain how some life managed to hold on.
But he also warned that the chemicals could still have played a substantial role in the mass extinction.
"Hydrogen sulfide levels may not have been enough to trigger ozone collapse. Nevertheless, these new models still show substantial increases," Kump said.
"We don't know what the consequences of that would be for terrestrial life."
Co-author Beerling added: "Hydrogen sulfide poisoning in the ocean is still a possibility. Our calculations don't rule that out."
(Related: "Toxic Deep-Ocean Water Triggered 'Great Dying' [November 26, 2007].)
Scientists also believe that the ozone layer still suffered some sort of collapse during the Permian—but that another set of chemicals was responsible.
Researchers, for example, have discovered mutated plant pollen that supports the theory that a depleted ozone layer was allowing damaging levels of ultraviolet light to reach Earth's surface.
"There is a very high increase in the abundance of tetrads—weird, mutated spores—in end-Permian rocks from all around the world," Beerling said.
"This new study shows quite nicely that the collapse of the ozone layer may have required other circumstances than simply a large increase in hydrogen sulfide flux into the atmosphere," Kump added.
One alternative theory is that a bout of massive volcanic activity known as the Siberian Traps released hydrochloric acid and organohalides into the air.
"Volcanic activity is an even more likely explanation for the extinctions now, because we have ruled out these other possible alternatives from the list," Beerling said.
Paul Wignall, a palaeobiologist from the University of Leeds in England, was not involved in the study.
"Now that this study has shown the hydrogen-sulfide-and-methane model is unlikely to work, we're back to square one and scratching around for an extinction mechanism," Wignall said.
He pointed out, however, that the volcanic theories are still pure speculation.
"They might be correct about organohalogens," he said, "but there is no supporting field evidence yet."
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