Hurricane Dean's winds could reach more than 160 miles (257 kilometers) an hour late tonight as it draws nearer to Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula, forecasters say. (See Yucatán map.)
That would make Dean a Category 5 hurricane, the most destructive storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 5 storms can create surges of at least 18 feet (5.4 meters) and cause catastrophic damage on land.
At 5 p.m. eastern standard time today, Dean was about 270 miles (434 kilometers) southeast of Cancún and moving westward across the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea (pictures: Hurricane Dean lashes Jamaica).
Richard Knabb, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said the waters ahead of the storm have been heated to 85 degrees Fahrenheit (29 degrees Celsius), making them "high octane" fuel for the storm.
Hurricanes draw their strength from water that has been heated to at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius).
(Related: "2007 Hurricane Season Will Be "Very Active," Forecasters Say" [April 3, 2007].)
Forecasters thought Dean would reach Category 5 status earlier in its march across the Caribbean, but a phenomenon that occurs only in extremely strong storms kept the hurricane from gathering steam.
That phenomenon, known as an eye-wall replacement cycle, happens when a very intense hurricane starts forming a second wall of winds around the existing eye. (How does a hurricane work?)
The event works like a noose, keeping the storm from getting stronger.
But forecasters don't believe this cycle will occur as Dean makes landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula early Tuesday morning. They predict the storm's winds will reach about 160 miles (257 kilometers) an hour at about 1 a.m. eastern standard time.
A hurricane warning remains in effect from neighboring Belize northward along the Yucatán to Cancún.
The storm's powerful eye could come ashore somewhere between the town of Tulum, Mexico, and Belize City.
Elsewhere, residents in the Cayman Islands were relieved after Hurricane Dean tore past them earlier today.
Fred Sambula, director of the Cayman Islands Meteorological Service, told National Geographic News that winds had peaked there at about 37 miles (59 kilometers) an hour.
Storm-driven waves caused flooding on Grand Cayman Island's southern and eastern shores, causing some damage to a coastal highway, Sambula said.
Cayman residents had feared that Dean might be a repeat of Category 5 Hurricane Ivan, which devastated the islands in September 2004.
"We came out pretty good," Sambula said. "This is a blessing."
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