Based on this warning, emergency-management officials in the Keys ordered tourists and temporary residents to leave the low-lying islands on Sunday.
But "Ernesto never really got its act together after leaving Cuba," said meteorologist Todd Kimberlain at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"There were a few different factors that caused that. It spent so much time over land." Upper level winds also may have impeded the storm's development, he said.
Meanwhile, sending the tourists out of the Keys meant that local businesses lost millions of U.S. dollars in income.
About 20,000 visitors "had their vacations shortened," said Andy Newman, a spokesperson for the Keys tourism industry.
But it could have been worse, he says.
"If we had to go through this, this was the time period to do it," Newman said. "This week is absolutely the slowest time period we have during the summer."
The islands were reopened to tourists today at noon, Newman says, and the upcoming Labor Day weekend should help offset losses.
Ernesto's eye passed near Florida's Lake Okeechobee, where engineers are concerned about the stability of the 140-mile-long (225-kilometer-long) Herbert Hoover Dike that protects the area from flooding.
But the lake's current water level is about 12 feet (3.6 meters) above sea level, which is considered safe.
Although Ernesto's rains will raise that level, officials don't think it will be high enough to strain the dike.
Willie Drye is author of Storm of the Century: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.
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