NOAA researchers said a combination of factors may contribute to an active 2006 season.
The main factors are upper-level winds and atmospheric pressure, along with continuing warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.
All of these factors have been in place since 1995, when meteorologists think a prolonged cycle of active hurricane seasons started.
Researchers think hurricane seasons alternate in cycles of active and less active seasons, with each cycle lasting 20 years or longer.
(Read a National Geographic magazine feature on the current cycle of killer hurricanes.)
The 2004 and 2005 seasons were especially punishing for Florida and the Gulf Coast, where a parade of very powerful hurricanes made landfall.
(See complete coverage of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.)
NOAA's seasonal forecasts do not include predictions of what parts of the country are most likely to be hit by storms.
But some meteorologists, including AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi, think conditions are right for the U.S. East Coast to take a hit from a major hurricane this year.
(Read "Major Hurricane Threat Seen for Northeast U.S., Experts Warn" [March 28, 2006].)
"The total number means nothing to me," Bastardi said.
"Hurricane Donna (in 1960) had three major landfalls. Hurricane Andrew (in 1992) and Hurricane Betsy (1956) each had several landfalls."
Bastardi thinks current weather patterns closely resemble those of the 1930s to the 1950s, a time marked by harsh weather events such as powerful hurricanes, droughts, and dust storms.
"This has happened before," he said. "It was a time of climatic hardship in the U.S. That's the way it was then, and the way it is now."
Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic Books.
Free Email News Updates
Best Online Newsletter, 2006 Codie Awards
Sign up for our Inside National Geographic newsletter. Every two weeks we'll send you our top stories and pictures (see sample).
|
SOURCES AND RELATED WEB SITES
|
