"Mini Ice Age" May Be Coming Soon, Sea Study Warns

<< Back to Page 1   Page 2 of 2

Quadfasel, who was not involved in the study, says the British team's findings aren't conclusive. They are, he said, based on limited samples of water salinity and temperature collected over five decades.

Still, Quadfasel said, "This observation is really important, even though it's at the limit of accuracy. The main message, I think, is right."

Many scientists have predicted this effect. Global warming already appears to be injecting more fresh water into polar seas due to increased precipitation and the melting of the Greenland ice cap.

This freshening of the North Atlantic current makes its waters less dense—so they don't sink down to depths at which they would then be transported back south.

As result, the circulation stalls, with warmer water no longer being drawn north.

Measurements of salinity levels in the North Atlantic over the last 50 years show "a significant trend toward lower salinity all over the place," Quadfasel said.

Evidence from prehistoric times shows that it is possible for northern air temperatures to drop by 10ºC (18ºF) within decades.

These abrupt changes are intimately linked to switches in ocean circulation, experts say.

Full Stop?

Some computer models predict an abrupt stop to the North Atlantic current sometime in the next hundred years. The current is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate.

"Personally I don't think it's going to happen in the next few years, but it's like a nuclear power plant—you've got to look at the risks, even if you don't expect the thing to blow up next week," Quadfasel said.

If the current does stop, he says, it would have devastating effects on northwest Europe. The freezing conditions would affect everything from agriculture to energy demand.

Marine life could also be seriously affected, according to Andreas Schmittner, assistant professor at Oregon State University's College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences.

Stalling of the North Atlantic circulation would halt the flow of nutrients from the deep ocean. "Plankton abundance will strongly decline," Schmittner said.

"Since plankton builds the base of the ocean food chain, animals higher up the chain—such as fish, squid and whales—can also be expected to suffer," he said.

Such impacts would not be confined to the Atlantic Ocean, he adds. Water that sinks in the North Atlantic resurfaces in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the seas surrounding Antarctica.

"Reduced sinking leads to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich waters and hence slower growth of algae and other plankton," he said.

How Real? How Soon?

But Schmittner says a Day After Tomorrow scenario isn't likely to be appearing anywhere near you soon.

"There is no reason for immediate concern or panic," he said.

It's still too early to say whether sea changes identified in the new study are part of the ocean's natural variability or the first signs a decline caused by human-induced global warming, he said.

"I received a phone call a few weeks ago from a concerned citizen who plans to sell his property and move abroad because of a possible collapse of the Atlantic overturning circulation," Schmittner added.

"Such reactions are clearly unwarranted."

And what does Quadfasel, the German oceanographer, think of Hollywood's cautionary eco-tale?

"Basically I thought the movie was okay. What was wrong was the timescale. Such things don't happen within a couple of days," Quadfasel said.

Free E-Mail News Updates
Sign up for our Inside National Geographic newsletter. Every two weeks we'll send you our top stories and pictures (see sample).

<< Back to Page 1   Page 2 of 2


SOURCES AND RELATED WEB SITES

ADVERTISEMENT

NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC'S PHOTO OF THE DAY

NEWS FEEDS     After installing a news reader, click on this icon to download National Geographic News's XML/RSS feed.   After installing a news reader, click on this icon to download National Geographic News's XML/RSS feed.

Get our news delivered directly to your desktop—free.
How to Use XML or RSS

National Geographic Daily News To-Go

Listen to your favorite National Geographic news daily, anytime, anywhere from your mobile phone. No wires or syncing. Download Stitcher free today.
Click here to get 12 months of National Geographic Magazine for $15.