Deep says that Chinese cooks are also fueling the price spikes.
"I was in China last week, and almost every day there was some report on star anise being used [to fight flu], and the local markets are revved up," he said.
"Mostly it's because housewives and people who use this in cooking think that if pharmaceutical companies are buying all of this up, there won't be enough to make their mu shu pork."
Unprocessed Equals Unhelpful
As a spice, star anise is of little or no help to flu sufferers. Shikimic acid is only extracted from the fruit's distinctive seedpod after a lengthy and complicated process whose details are kept secret by Roche.
Even practitioners of traditional Chinese medicine say that consumers shouldn't bother stockpiling star anise to guard against the flu.
That's not to say the plant has no healing power.
"It's used as a digestive stimulant in Chinese medicine," said Bryn Clark, an herbalist practicing in Beverly, Massachusetts.
"It's got a warming quality, so it has kind of a slightly stimulant effect on a digestive system that has gotten slow or is having problems," Clark added.
Star anise teas are also believed to treat colic in babies. But in 2003 the FDA issued an advisory against such teas when dozens of people fell ill from drinking them.
It's likely that the offending teas contained toxic Japanese star anise, rather than its benign Chinese relative. Still, the agency warned against consuming any star anise teas, citing the lack of specific evidence to support their assumed benefits.
Star Anise Supply
Star anisenot to be confused with anise, a licorice-flavored herbgrows on evergreen trees in hot, humid, mountainous regions. The plants do particularly well in China's southwestern provinces: Guizhou, Guangxi Zhuangzu, Sichuan, and Yunnan.
The eight-pointed seedpods are harvested and dried before Roche's extraction process yields shikimic acid for Tamiflu. Just 2.2 pounds (1 kilogram) of acid is produced from every 66 pounds (30 kilograms) of pods, according to Roche's Web site.
Other plants also contain shikimic acid, but star anise has a special concentration that makes it attractive to drugmakers.
"There are a number of different varieties of star anise, but only one in particular has the concentration of shikimic acid that can be extracted cost-effectively, and I know that we're not concerned about that supply," said Al Wasilewski, a spokesperson for Roche in Nutley, New Jersey.
Roche also produces shikimic acid using a special e-coli bacteria fermentation process. They hope to increase the use of this process and to make it more cost-effective, which could ease the demand for star anise.
"About a third of our production of shikimic acid comes from fermentation, and our goal over time is to shift from an extraction-dominant [star anise-based] source of shikimic acid to a fermentation source," Wasilewski said.
In the meantime, there is no short-term supply relief in sight, because star anise trees take years to mature. But Deep, the New Jersey spice broker, notes that star anise is still commercially available, if costly, and that such markets are always subject to unpredictable events.
"If the world is fortunate with this pandemic that everyone is talking about, the whole demand for Tamiflu may just go down the tubes," he said.
"Star anise has found its day in the sunbut how long it will last is anyone's guess."
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