Father Richard McBrien is a theologian at Indiana's University of Notre Dame. He thinks it is more likely—though not a sure thing—that the next pope will be an Italian.
"With so many cardinal-electors—119 at this point—and so many possible candidates, it's practically impossible to do more than guess," he said. "No one seriously predicted the election of Karol Wojtyla of Poland last time around. It could be anybody.
"Whomever they elect will have to show an awareness of, and concern for, the so-called world church—of Africa, Latin America, and Asia," McBrien said, adding that all of the serious candidates have this quality.
"An Election Is an Election"
The pope is essentially an elected monarch; there are no checks or balances on his power. The reigning pope holds office for life and has the last word in all executive, legislative, and judicial powers.
Pope John Paul II has appointed all but 3 of the 120 cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope, possibly stacking the odds that John Paul's teachings will remain in place.
"The bottom line is, it's an election, shrouded in mystery, and it has kind of an arcane feel to it," McBrien said. "Catholics believe the choice is guided by the Holy Spirit, but in the long run, it's an election. And when there's an election, people vote.
"The campaigning and the politicking might be much more subtle than in the American political arena, but in the end, there's a winner and loser."
American Pope?
Several names have surfaced as front-runners.
A conservative Nigerian cardinal, Francis Arinze, is rumored to rank high on the list of potential successors. Arinze is president of the Pontifical Council for Inter-religious Dialogue, an issue that likely will be a high priority for the next pope.
Latin American candidates include Cardinal Claudio Hummes of Brazil, Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, and Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, a Jesuit from Argentina, according to McBrien.
Potential European candidates include Cardinal Godfried Danneels of Belgium and Cardinal Walter Kasper of Germany.
Gillis cautions that any predictions should be taken with a grain of salt. "There's an old saying in Rome: 'He who goes into the conclave a pope comes out a cardinal,'" Gillis said.
The only virtually sure thing is that the chances of an American pope are next to zero.
The United States is home to 63 million Catholics, about a third of them Hispanic. At about 23 percent of the population, Catholics form the largest religious group in the country.
The U.S. is home to one of the wealthiest branches of the church. Annual income from the country's roughly 20,000 parishes is estimated at 7.5 billion dollars.
But electing an American "would be like appointing an American the head of the United Nations," Gillis said, adding that the U.S. is "just too powerful a nation, too dominant and imperialistic in some views."
"It's highly, highly unlikely for that reason. And secondly, the American cardinals, for the most part, are not that well connected in the Vatican."
Following in John Paul's Footsteps
Whatever the nationality of the next leader of the Vatican, John Paul II has changed the role of the pope and will leave some very big shoes to fill.
"He's been a globe-trotter and a very charismatic personality," Gillis said. "The next pope can't be someone who is not media savvy and doesn't have some charisma and public persona and the ability to exploit that for the church. So in a way John Paul has set a benchmark there and changed the papacy."
Many people assume that John Paul II will be succeeded by someone who holds similar beliefs. That's not necessarily so, according to McBrien, the Notre Dame theologian.
"The next pope will be different from John Paul II in personality, style, and perhaps even policies," McBrien said. "Popes are almost never succeeded by photocopies of themselves, even if, like John Paul II, they have created almost all of the cardinal-electors. History shows that it doesn't work out that way."
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