for National Geographic News
Acts of terrorism like the September 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. are a worst-case symptom of global insecurity brought about by the festering interplay among poverty, infectious disease, and environmental degradationthe true "axis of evil," according to the Worldwatch Institute in its State of the World 2005 report.
The Washington, D.C.-based research group released its annual report Wednesday. It concludes that until these conditionsand compounding factors such as the spread of small armsare fiercely fought, political instability, warfare, and extremism will continue to thrive.
"Unless these threats are recognized and responded to, the world runs the risk of being blindsided by new forces of instability, just as the United States was surprised by the terrorist attacks of September 11," Christopher Flavin, the institute's president, said in a statement to the media.
Michael Renner, a project director for the report, added in an interview that it's wrong to suggest that violence will break out anywhere that's been subjected to poverty, infectious disease, or environmental problems. "There's a whole set of aggravating circumstances that need to be in place for the worst-case scenario to come into play," he said.
But the circumstances are in place. Among those highlighted by the report include: more than two billion people suffer from hunger and chronic nutrient deficiencies; nearly half a million people face water scarcity; infectious diseases like AIDS are spreading with a vengeance; and 21 to 26 percent of people aged 15 to 29 are unemployed in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.
The report says that each of these conditions weakens the fabric of society and force conflict to arise. Mixed together, they can be lethal. "They can translate into political dynamics that lead to rising polarization and radicalization. Worst-case outcomes are more likely where grievances are left to fester," Renner writes in the "Security Redefined" chapter of the report.
But the conditions do not need to fester, according to the Worldwatch Institute. Civilian institutions and international treaties are in place to combat the root causes of instability. They just need proper attention and funding.
Former Soviet president and current chairman of Green Cross International Mikhail Gorbachev wrote the forward to the State of the World 2005. He begins: "Five years ago, all 191 United Nations member states pledged to meet eight Millennium Development Goals by 2015."
The Millennium Development Goals, or MDGs, include eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, achieving universal primary education, promoting of gender equality, reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, ensuring environmental sustainability, and developing a global partnership for development.
The MDGs were originally adopted to address global inequalities. But in the post-9/11 world, Gorbachev and the Worldwatch Institute say achieving the MDGsand a matching set of environment-oriented targets outlined at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africawould help break the cycle of poverty, infectious disease, and environmental degradation that threatens global security.
Renner said he and his colleagues highlighted these goals because at least on paper they represent specific and tangible goals that most of the world's governments have agreed to achieve.
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