Did the resurgence of bin Laden's videotape before the U.S. elections serve to galvanize the resolve of Islamic fundamentalists?
I think the new tape sent a frisson through their ranks, letting them know that the "Sheikh," as they call him, is alive and well and still in the game.
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Can you tell us if there has been any change in Afghanistan since the U.S. election? How was Bush's reelection received?
No obvious changes yet. Among Karzai and his cabinet, Bush's victory was welcomed—although some Kabul officials thought that Kerry, after all of his criticism of Bush getting distracted by Iraq, might pump a few more U.S. troops into Afghanistan to help in the hunt for bin Laden. That would have been welcomed. Afghans want security, and the coalition forces are making that happen.
Regular Afghan folk—who tune in nightly to the British Broadcasting Corporation [BBC] and the Voice of America's broadcasts in [the languages] Pashtu and Dari—opined that Bush was at war with Muslims and were not happy with his reelection.
Did the Afghan election help validate and strengthen the emergence of moderate Muslims as an offset to the Taliban and fundamentalist Islam?
Yes, it did. The Taliban threatened to sabotage the elections, and they failed. The tribesmen warned [the Taliban] to stay away. And besides, the Taliban are first and foremost Pashtuns. And even though they might think Karzai is an American puppet, he is still a fellow Pashtun—and therefore more acceptable than the other main candidates who were Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras.
Now an amnesty has been offered to rank-and-file Taliban by Karzai, and it will be interesting to see how many Taliban fighters drop their guns.
How would you rate the success of the international community in post-war relief efforts, say, in terms of infrastructure investments, the building of schools, clinics, hospitals, etc.?
Much better than in Iraq. Some aid workers have been attacked by Taliban and by bandits. But by and large the aid is getting through to the remote areas where it is needed most.
In the south and east, where the Taliban are strongest, Afghans are still reluctant to take aid, fearing retribution. But this is slowly changing. Many Talibs were demoralized by the high voter turnout.
Since the U.S. defeat of the Taliban, Afghanistan's drug trade seems to have surged. Is this causing an influx of new money into the country to support local warlords? If so, does that destabilize the authority of the Afghan government?
It certainly does. Most of the warlords use drug money to pay off their private armies and retain control over whatever valley or region they hold. It is also destabilizing Karzai in other ways, too. Some of his cabinet officials are linked to big-time drug traffickers, and the web of corruption extends from Kabul down to governors and regional police chiefs.
It will be hard, if not impossible, for the U.S. to weed out the opium problem anytime soon.
For more on this subject, see photos from the December 2004 National Geographic article, "Tracking the Ghost of bin Laden." On the same Web page, watch "The Guns of Dharra," the first ever footage of a family-run munitions factory in the remote region of Afghanistan dubbed "bin Ladinstan."
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