The NOAA forecast calls for a potential of 11 to 15 named tropical storms and the Colorado State team calls for 12 named storms. Of those, NOAA predicts that 6 to 9 will form into hurricanes, of which 2 to 4 will be classified as major.
The Colorado State team says 8 will become hurricanes, 3 of them intense with sustained winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or greater. The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.6 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
The 2002 hurricane season saw 12 named tropical storms, but only 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2003 season promises to be stronger, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of the forecast team at Colorado State University.
"Most importantly, the El Niño that put a damper on last season is gone now," he said. "Right now conditions are about neutral between El Niño and La Niña and it looks like conditions will go towards La Niña this summer, though it is difficult to say."
Additionally, the North Atlantic continues to be warmer than normal as part of a multi-decadal pattern. Klotzbach said that when this pattern existed in the 1950s and 60s, every year except for El Niño-influenced years were more active than normal.
According to the forecast by Klotzbach and his colleagues, there is a 68 percent chance that one of the major hurricanes will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts.
Halpert, with the Climate Prediction Center, said "we expect to see more storms develop in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean, but there is no way to say where those storms will go at this stage."
As a result of the more active hurricane season, Halpert says that the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions should expect a wetter than normal later summer and fall.
La Niña Wildcard
The wildcard for hurricane forecasters is whether or not La Niña forms over the course of the summer. La Niña is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean as opposed to El Niño's unusually warm temperatures.
"If you have La Niña, hurricane activity will be enhanced even further," said Klotzbach. The weather phenomenon reduces vertical wind shear in the heart of the hurricane development region.
NOAA says there is a 70 percent chance of La Niña forming. If it does, the influence will be most strongly felt next winter when it should result in drier and warmer conditions in the Southeast.
"In winter, patterns are somewhat more predictable. It looks like we will see a La Niña developing over the coming months, so we may be expecting a La Niña-influenced winter," said Halpert.
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