Iraq Expert Predicts "Problems of Control"

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Arab nationalism is strong in much of the Middle East. What is it exactly, and how does it play out in Iraq?

Arab nationalism is an ideology that [advocates] the Arabs need to have [a single] Arab state, that all Arabs are one, and that the [present] divisions between them are artificial. This, in some ways, has become almost mythology. Very few Arabs in the Arab world today would see that the countries would dissolve [to] become one Arab nation. But there is still this idea that the Arabs have this cultural unanimity. Sunni Arabs in Iraq have hung on to [that belief] because they want to be part of the larger Arab world. [It] protects them then from the Arab Shia, who don't want to be part of the Arab world because they would be the minority there forever. They would never get their political-economic rights that they're demanding in Iraq.

Saddam Hussein was a product of Arab nationalism, which the Sunnis have subscribed to throughout the history of the [country].

What conditions enabled Saddam Hussein to assume and retain power?

Saddam Hussein came up through a party called the Baath Party that really did preach Arab nationalism. The Baath Party got into power in Iraq [partly by] co-opting much of the military, which was also Sunni Arab and Arab nationalist, to put [the Baaths] in power.

Once the Baath Party came in, Saddam Hussein—who was really the man behind the scene—began to organize the party much like Stalin had organized the Communist Party in the 1930s in Russia. You organize the Party to the point that it is actually able to set aside the military. Once in power, the Baathists purged the military leaders and took over the country. Then in 1979 Saddam Hussein stepped out of the shadows and took total control of Iraq, which he has held ever since.

What was the impact of the military coup against the Iraqi monarchy of King Fasal II in the late 1950s?

In Iraq…the monarchy…was overthrown during 1958 by a military group [that was] Arab nationalist, anti-elitist. Because the country was so fragmented, because [Iraqis] didn't have a real sense of who they were or what they wanted for their country, they went through 10 [subsequent] years of chaos of trying to define what the Iraqi state should be.

This was a conflict within the military itself: Is Iraq a unique country in which you've got Arabs and Kurds…Sunni and Shia? Or is Iraq part of that larger Arab world? They never successfully defined that. Saddam Hussein has been through several renditions of Iraqi identity. He [himself] has never been able to define the country. So that is where we are today. The Iraqis don't [know who they are.]

Economic sanctions imposed on Iraq by the United Nations in 1991 are still in effect. How have they affected the Iraqi people?

The sanctions are really a two-edged sword. To begin with, I don't think there's any question that sanctions have been effective in more or less keeping Saddam Hussein caged. They certainly haven't disarmed him. But they have kept him within bounds that have been manageable for the region.

The negative part of them has been the sanctions were probably allowed to stay unamended for too long. The total embargo that was imposed on Iraq after the end of the Gulf War was meant to be a drastic, short-term plan [to] topple Saddam Hussein, or at least force him to agree to arms inspections. They didn't. [Hussein] proved that he was willing to sacrifice his own people to keep his weapons.

There wasn't enough political will among the Security Council members to mount a military expedition to force [Hussein's] compliance. So everybody sort of by default just left the sanctions [in place].

They had a devastating effect on all Iraqis. What we're seeing today is that you can meet the food and medical needs of the Iraqis very easily. But in dismantling the Iraqi economy, the sanctions really destroyed the middle class. That's the group you need now to try to stabilize Iraq in a post-Saddam era.

Editor's note: AOL will host a live chat with author Sandra Mackey on Thursday, November 21 at 9 p.m. ET. (AOL keyword: "Mideast History")

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