Although the groundhog's annual appearance has reached a cult-like status, scientists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say Phil's no meterologist—and they've issued a report examining Phil's last 12 predictions to support their claim.

"We didn't find a whole lot of skill there," says NOAA meteorologist Tom Ross.

A Midwinter Myth

Groundhog Day evolved from Candlemas Day, long observed in parts of Europe on February 2—the midpoint between the winter and spring solstices. An English saying predicts the following:

If Candlemas be fair and bright, Winter has another flight. If Candlemas brings clouds and rain, Winter will not come again.

According to Pat Jarbeck of the Punxsutawney Chamber of Commerce, the town's German residents were looking for a holiday to "brighten things up" between Christmas and Easter.

"They really didn't have anything to do back then," she explains.

The German immigrants revived a Candlemas tradition of looking for a badger to see its shadow and replaced it with an American groundhog, says Jarbeck.

Groundhog Day became an annual Punxsutawney event in the late 1800s. The holiday slowly gained popularity, and after the release of the movie Groundhog Day in 1993, visitors to Punxsutawney on February 2 soared, reaching nearly 30,000.

Phil: Cute but Inaccurate

This year, Punxsutawney's weather didn't obscure Phil's shadow.

Does this guarantee six more weeks of winter? Don't count on it, says Ross, although he won't comment on specifics.

NOAA doesn't like to make long-term forecasts, he says. But Ross points to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which calls for temperatures near Phil's home to be warmer than normal in February.

Just as Phil's forecast contradicts NOAA's scientific prediction, Ross says the groundhog's past record has been less than stellar.

NOAA's website provides a comparison of the past 12 years of Phil's predictions to the average February and March U.S. temperatures for those years.

In 1999, Phil did not see his shadow, and temperatures for February and March were above average. In only four of the last 12 years, however, did the temperatures in those months support Phil's predictions. This examination, says Ross, indicates that the Groundhog Day predictions are likely little more than myth.

Even without the backing of NOAA, Phil keeps his fans coming back to Punxsutawney.

"Everybody enjoys the folklore," says Jarbeck. "Everybody enjoys the fun of it. Who's to say who's right and who's wrong?"