As was the case in the run-up to the first such event in 1996, China – which regards Taiwan as its province—has responded to election-year politicking with threats of attack. In some respects these verbal warnings go even further than its physical saber-rattling of four years ago. At that time China staged military maneuvers, test-fired missiles and threatened to invade if the claim of independent statehood became the island’s official policy. The United States government responded by sending warships into the 100-mile (160-km) strait that separates the feuding parties.

Rhetoric aside, what are the chances of the two superpowers ever really going to war over this speck of Asian soil?

"BEAUTIFUL ISLAND"

China’s claims to ownership of Taiwan date back to the 13th century and the Mongol conqueror Genghis Khan. Named "Beautiful Island" (Ilha Formosa) by Portuguese explorers, it was ceded by China to Japan in 1895 after the first Sino-Japanese war. After World War II it was surrendered back to China, then led by Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang party. The island became the last refuge for Chiang’s forces in 1949 after their defeat at the hands of Communists led by Mao Zedong.

Shaped like an upside—down hot pepper, Taiwan is bracketed by the capital Taipei to the north and the old industrial port of Kaohsiung to the south. In between are roughly 180 miles (290 km) of flat—to—rolling coastal plain and rugged mountains, including Yu Shan, at 3,997 meters the island’s highest peak.

After World War II the label "Made in Taiwan" came to be associated with low-priced merchandise. But like its much larger island neighbor to the north, Japan, Taiwan is now a thriving Western-style economy blessed with low inflation and unemployment. Its foreign reserves are the world’s third largest.

Taiwan is increasingly a center of capital—and technology&$151;intensive industries. At the same time it is a major investor in other Asian countries where labor is still cheap—including, ironically, mainland China.

POLITICS OF INDEPENDENCE

In 1991 Taiwan ended more than 40 years of state-of-emergency rule by the Kuomintang. The party’s election victory that year, with 70 percent of the vote, confirmed the island’s popular opposition to unification with China.

However, going the further step of officially declaring independence always has been more controversial. In 1996 one of the major challengers to then incumbent President Lee Teng-hui advocated total independence. Despite heavy intimidation from the mainland, he won 21 percent of the vote, coming in second behind Lee, who got 54 percent.

Recently Beijing followed up increasingly belligerent statements about the March 18 election by going significantly beyond its previous warnings against a declaration of independence. It formally declared on Feb. 21 that it would attack Taiwan if the island drags its heels on starting reunification negotiations.

In later comments to the press, Chinese General Zhang Wannian summed up the latest official policy: "Taiwan’s independence means war. Separatism means no peace."

CHINA HAS OTHER CONCERNS

Observers have noted that the Chinese military has a vested interest in tough talk, which it uses to drum up support for bigger budgets. Civilian leaders, while continuing to insist on eventual unification, are more prone to speak of negotiations than military attack. According to a Foreign Ministry spokesman, China has no intention of interfering with the voting on March 18—which he called a "local election."

Weighing heavily against any actual armed conflict is the fact that China today is no longer the ideologically-driven communist state that existed under Mao. Most observers see China’s moves in the direction of a free, capitalistic economy as a more important item on the agenda of the current leadership.

Nevertheless, threats over unification continue, inevitably leading to hostility on Capitol Hill, where Taiwan has many staunch supporters. China wants the U.S. Congress to approve permanent normalization of trade relations as part of a deal to enter the World Trade Organization—one of China’s chief economic objectives in recent years. The most recent round of bellicose statements about Taiwan has prompted powerful Republicans on Capitol Hill to threaten to scuttle this legislation. It has also renewed efforts to form stronger military ties with Taiwan. v But with none of the candidates in the upcoming election ruling out eventual unification, almost no one currently foresees Taiwan becoming a cause of war anytime soon, if ever.